No question the Cinderella team of the 2023 NCAA Tournament is No. 15 seed Princeton of the Ivy League.
We believe the Tigers’ run ends in the Sweet 16 against No. 6 Creighton of the Big East on Friday, but that doesn’t mean the Bluejays will cover a big number at the top-rated online sportsbooks.
NCAAB Pick: Princeton +10 (-110) at Bet365
Princeton Tigers vs. Creighton Bluejays
Friday, March 24, 2023 – 09:00 PM EDT at KFC Yum! Center
If anyone tells you they had No. 15 Princeton vs. No. 6 Creighton advancing to a Sweet 16 matchup of this year’s NCAA Tournament, they are lying. No shock the Bluejays are here as it might be the most talented team they have ever had.
Princeton is of course the stunner, but it’s also the third straight season a No. 15 has reached the Sweet 16. Last year, fellow New Jersey school Saint Peter’s won in that round before bowing out in the Elite Eight (no 15 seed has reached the Final Four). In 2021, No. 15 Oral Roberts lost in this round.
The winner faces either No. 1 Alabama (probably the team) or No. 5 San Diego State on Sunday for a trip to the Final Four. The lone meeting between Princeton and Creighton was a 63-54 Bluejays win in Omaha on Dec. 29, 1961.
Princeton Doesn’t Beat Itself
Princeton (23-8) wasn’t even supposed to win the Ivy League Tournament. The Tigers hosted the four-team Ivy Madness but were 3-point underdogs on the NCAA college basketball odds in the title game against Yale, which was 2-0 vs. Princeton in the regular season but lost 74-65 when it mattered most.
In Round 1 of the Dance, the Tigers shocked No. 2 Arizona 59-55 as 15-point underdogs, the biggest spread upset by an Ivy League team in NCAA Tournament history and only the 11th time a No. 15 beat a No. 2. In Round 2, Princeton beat No. 7 Missouri 78-63 to become the first Ivy League school since Cornell in 2010 to reach the Sweet 16.
This is Princeton’s first Sweet 16 since 1967. The 15-point margin was the largest ever in the NCAA Tournament by a 15 seed.
“A Tough Group”
“[We’re] a really tough group. We can switch. [They] know exactly what they’re supposed to do,” said Coach Mitch Henderson, a player at Princeton in the 1990s. “They keep their body in front of their guys. Good old-fashioned, tough-nosed defense.”
Princeton’s best player is senior forward Tosan Evbuowman, a two-time first-team All-Ivy League pick who is averaging 14.8 ppg and 6.3 rpg. He has totaled 16 boards in the two Big Dance games, helping the Tigers outrebound much bigger foes.
While Arizona might beat Princeton nine times out of 10, Princeton was the better team than Missouri, trailing once by just a point and leading by double figures for most of the final 25 minutes. Ryan Langborg was the star with 22 points, six rebounds and four assists.
It’s an Ivy League team, so we know Princeton plays smart. The Tigers have averaged only 8.8 turnovers per game during a six-game winning streak. They haven’t played a Big East team this season – why don’t they play in-state Seton Hall from the Big East every year?
- Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win.
- Over is 9-4 in Tigers last 13 overall.
Creighton Is Very Balanced
While Princeton has been one of the nation’s top rebounding teams this season, Creighton brings a whole different animal in 7-foot-1 Ryan Kalkbrenner, the two-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year who is averaging 15.7 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.2 blocks while shooting an absurd 70.6% from the field.
Kalkbrenner was unstoppable in Round 1 vs. NC State with 31 points on 11-for-14 shooting but not as dominant in the 85-76 win over No. 3 Baylor in Round 2 in part due to foul trouble. Frankly, the only chance I give Princeton here is if Kalkbrenner is in foul trouble or gets hurt. However, Kalkbrenner averages fewer than two fouls per game.
That’s the thing with Creighton: Anyone can have a big night offensively as five guys average at least 11.8 points.
Ryan Nembhard was the main guy against Baylor with a career-high 30 points. Creighton got a combined 76 points from its starting five vs. the Bears, getting 17 from Trey Alexander, 11 from Arthur Kaluma, 10 from Kalkbrenner and eight from Baylor Scheierman plus 30 from Nembhard. Creighton improved to 23-3 this year when tied or leading at halftime.
“Unselfish”
“Our guys are unselfish enough to know if somebody’s got it going, let’s figure out a way to get him the basketball and get out of his way,” coach Greg McDermott said.
The Bluejays had been just 1-11 in their second game of an NCAA Tournament before beating Baylor. The Jays are now 17-24 all-time in 24 NCAA Tournament appearances and are in the Sweet 16 for the second time in the past three seasons after no such appearances from 1975-2020. McDermott is 9-7 in eight NCAA Tournament trips with Creighton.
If Princeton is down late and needs to start fouling, the game is probably over as Creighton is one of the nation’s top free-throw shooting teams. It was 22-for-22 against Baylor and has hit at least 80% from the charity stripe in five straight games. Princeton is 21-1 when keeping teams to 70 points or fewer, and 4-7 when it doesn’t. Creighton has only been held to under 70 nine times and I don’t expect it will be here.
Princeton vs. Creighton Picks
CU hasn’t played an Ivy League school this season. It did play and lose to Arizona in November and of course, Princeton just beat the Wildcats.
Creighton advances – and I think absolutely can beat No. 1 Alabama in the Elite Eight — but is giving too many points. The public agrees with me as 61% of ATS action currently at OddsTrader is on the Tigers.
- Bluejays are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Bluejays are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games.
- Over is 5-2 in Bluejays’ last 7 overall.
NCAAB Pick: Over 140 (-110) at BetRivers
