Are the Tampa Bay Rays for real? They’ve rattled off 10 straight wins heading into Tuesday’s action, making them the first MLB team to do so since the Milwaukee Brewers in 1987. Not that it did Milwaukee any good; they finished the year out of the playoffs at 91-71.
The Wild Card changes things, of course. The Rays are already 91.2% to make the playoffs according to FanGraphs, and a virtual coin flip to take the American League East, ahead of the New York Yankees (28.1%) and Toronto Blue Jays (18.6%), each at 6-4 to start the 2023 campaign.
Then you have the Boston Red Sox (1.9%) and Baltimore Orioles (1.0%) at 5-5. This year was always going to be a struggle for both teams, but especially Boston, as they try to recover from the departures of Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi, among others.
The modern Red Sox know a few things about beating expectations. In the meantime, they’ve got their hands full with Tampa Bay this week, and Wednesday’s game at the Trop is where we’ll find two of the three player props going in our MLB picks.
Picks Summary
- Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+1300)
- Christian Bethancourt to Get a Hit (-200)
- Cristian Pache to Get a Hit (-105)
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at Tropicana Field
Let’s start once again with the sexiest MLB prop of them all: the Home Run prop. As we go to press, Rays 2B Brandon Lowe is priced at +1300 on the early lines to go yard against the Red Sox; FantasyData projects Lowe to hit 0.13 homers, so the risk is well worth the reward.
Chris Sale (3.78 xFIP in eight innings) is one of the bigger reasons why Lowe has so much betting value here. Sale is a seven-time All-Star, and was a top Cy Young candidate each of those years, but the good times stopped in August 2019 when Sale’s elbow started acting up.
One Tommy John surgery and several other injuries later, and Sale is clearly not the pitcher he used to be. His velocity is down, and hitters are getting the barrel on the ball much more often than before; Sale has already given up four homers in two starts this year.
As for Lowe, he’s got three home runs in eight games played, and looking much more like the guy who went deep 39 times in 2021 before back and triceps issues ruined his 2022 season. The lefty-lefty matchup doesn’t help our cause, but that +1300 payout certainly would.
MLB Pick: Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+1300) at Caesars Sportsbook
Will Christian Bethancourt Get a Hit?
We hope so. This prop will be easier to cash in, although it holds roughly the same betting value, with Bethancourt priced at -200 on the MLB odds board. FantasyData has the Rays catcher at 0.90 hits for Wednesday’s contest. This time, in addition to Sale’s struggles, we’re getting a bargain price because Bethancourt (.105 BA in six games) has also gotten off to a rocky start, with just two hits in his first 21 plate appearances.
Things are bound to improve for Bethancourt. Small sample size is part of the problem here; so is his .077 BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play. If you’re relatively new to making baseball picks, BABIP is one of those stats that hitters don’t have much control over, so you can expect some regression when it’s either much higher or much lower than usual.
As you may have guessed, Bethancourt’s .077 BABIP is considerably lower than his .285 career average. Maybe all he needs is a couple of at-bats versus Sale – and this time, it’s a righty hitter versus the southpaw starter.
MLB Pick: Christian Bethancourt to Get a Hit (-200) at Caesars Sportsbook
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
As tasty as those two MLB props look, the best of Wednesday’s picks might be with this game in Philly, where CF Cristian Pache is available at -105 to get a hit off the Marlins.
Pache (.158 career BA) isn’t the kind of guy you normally see in our baseball picks. He’s a 24-year-old fringe prospect who’s already on his third big-league team in four years, after previous stops in Atlanta and Oakland.
Having said that, assuming he plays Wednesday, Pache also gets to face projected Miami starter Edward Cabrera (8.87 xFIP in 6.2 innings). FantasyData seems to think it’ll be Brandon Marsh getting the start instead, but keep an eye on the newswires, and if Pache gets the nod, bet accordingly.
MLB Pick: Cristian Pache to Get a Hit (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
