It’s not that there’s anything particularly awful about Tyler Wells. He just happens to be the bad guy in our latest 3-pack of MLB picks, where we’re loading up on Chicago White Sox player props for Friday’s matchup with Wells and the Baltimore Orioles.
The hero of our story is RF Oscar Colas. We’re betting on the rookie from Cuba to get an RBI (at +255 on the early MLB betting odds) and a hit (-175) for the White Sox; we also want a hit from Colas’ trusty sidekick, Elvis Andrus (-165).
In theory, we’re getting decent edges on these baseball props, certainly enough to wager one unit of your bankroll on. But let’s take a closer look at everyone involved before we start throwing our money around.
Picks Summary
- Oscar Colas to Get an RBI (+255)
- Oscar Colas to Get a Hit (-175)
- Elvis Andrus to Get a Hit (-165)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox
Friday, April 14, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field
Who Is Tyler Wells?
Even if they’re in the American League East, it’s easy to overlook the Orioles (7-6, plus-0.24 betting units) and their suspect starting rotation, especially Wells in the 5-hole. This is his third year in the big leagues, all with Baltimore, after they snapped him up from the Minnesota Twins in the Rule 5 Draft.
The Orioles took a flyer on the 15th-round pick in 2016 despite the fact he was coming off Tommy John surgery, and they got their money’s worth; Wells made 23 starts last year, posting a 4.60 xFIP while earning a mere $700,000 or so.
That may be fine when you’re running one of the cheapest teams in the majors (No. 29 this year with a $65-million payroll), but suffice to say Wells is no Jim Palmer.
There’s always a chance for improvement, and we’re not going to bury Wells in this space for being slightly better than replacement level (0.7 WAR last year at FanGraphs) – but we’re definitely betting against him this Friday.
Who Is Oscar Colas?
If you’re a serious baseball nerd who follows the Japanese scene, you may recognize Colas as the guy who defected from Cuba after signing a developmental deal with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. Colas only played a handful of games there before signing with Chicago in January 2022.
There was some talk about Colas being a two-way player, given his 95-mph fastball, but his lack of pitching experience was enough for the White Sox to focus on his hitting. And he’s getting there; after climbing the minor-league ladder last year, Colas is off to an 11-for-40 start (.275 BA, .701 OPS) as a rookie, with four RBIs thus far.
This will be the first time Colas and Wells have ever faced each other – current White Sox hitters are only 1-for-11 lifetime versus Wells, but that includes 0-for-6 from Andrew Benintendi, so we’re not too worried about that stat.
FantasyData projects Colas for 0.43 RBI and 0.94 hits this Friday, so we think there’s ample value for both his MLB props, but if you’re only going to bet one, make it the RBI prop for a higher profit margin and a larger payout.
MLB Pick: Oscar Colas to Get an RBI (+255) at Bet365
MLB Pick: Oscar Colas to Get a Hit (-175) at Bet365
Will Elvis Andrus Get a Hit?
All signs point to “Yes.” Andrus is having a slow start to the season at 7-for-48 (.146 BA, .343 OPS), and he’s 10 years removed from the last of his two All-Star appearances, but maybe facing Wells will get Andrus back on the good foot – he’s 1-for-2 lifetime in this righty-v-righty matchup.
Of course, Andrus is also a candidate for the Washed List at age 34, which is especially old for a shortstop. Chicago is his third team in four years; the Texas Rangers traded Andrus to the Oakland Athletics in the very sad Khris Davis exchange, then Andrus signed a cheap $3-million deal with the Pale Hose this offseason.
Andrus can still get the bat on the ball, though. His .175 BABIP this year is a good sign that his batting average is about to go up, and FanGraphs projects Andrus for 0.85 hits in Friday’s contest.
All three of our MLB player props should also get a boost, although maybe a small one, from the lovely weather Chicagoland is enjoying right now. Friday’s game-time forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 60s, albeit with light winds blowing down the first-base line. Bet accordingly.
MLB Pick: Elvis Andrus to Get a Hit (-165) at Bet365
