The attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump is the apparent driver in BetMGM and FanDuel pulling the presidential race off their respective betting menus. Meanwhile, J.D. Vance has been tapped as Trump’s running mate, but that has not had any immediate effect on the election betting odds.
Pardon the Interruption
Unlike in the USA, betting on politics is part of the legal betting landscape in Canada but in light of the recent assassination attempt on presidential candidate Donald Trump, both BetMGM and FanDuel have decided to remove the presidential odds from their political offerings. Whether this is permanent or merely in deference to the heinous and bloody attack on the former president is unclear.
Sports betting industry insider, Bill Speros, posted the following on X:
BREAKING: “In light of recent events, FanDuel has made the decision to suspend its US election markets.”
FanDuel has shuttered its election markets in Canada
BetMGM has done the same but has not commented on the removal.
Former President Trump was a prohibitive favorite at odds of -150 to win the 2024 Presidential Election but after the attempt on his life, those odds have spiked to as high as -350 at Caesars Canada. Rounding out Caesars’ top five after Trump are President Joe Biden (+575), Vice President Kamala Harris (+600), Michelle Obama (+2500), and California Governor Gavin Newsom (+3000).
But there is still plenty of time between now and November 5th when the voters will have the ultimate say. As Keith Lerner, co-chief investing officer and chief strategist at Truist, reminded political watchers everywhere, “The Republican convention was already going to come into the spotlight this week, and this will amplify that attention. That said, the actual election is still almost four months away and a lot can happen between now and then.”
Trump Taps Vance
Just two days after Trump’s brush with death, he chose freshman Senator J.D. Vance to be his running mate. Vance was one of the leading candidates to be tapped by Trump with Caesars Canada installing the 39-year-old as a +100 favorite before the announcement.
Vance is a neophyte in the political arena, capturing the Ohio Senate seat vacated by fellow Republican Rob Portman and ultimately winning the election with support from well-heeled donors who funded his campaign. He became the first U.S. Senator from Ohio without previous government experience since astronaut John Glenn did it in 1974.
He hails from a pivotal swing state but one in which Trump claimed victory in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. However, he is a populist and some believe he will resonate with centrists better than the former president. That should give Trump a bit of a lift but as of this early writing, Vance has done nothing to persuade the oddsmakers that he is worthy of making Trump an even bigger favorite than he already is.
A Harvard/Harris poll in June found that Vance would not influence more than two-thirds of the electorate with 20% of the respondents saying they would be less likely to vote for Trump if Vance was the pick while 12% said they would be more likely to vote for Trump.
