Industry sources have projected Super Bowl betting at licensed US sportsbooks to be anywhere between $1.39 billion and $2 billion when the Eagles meet the Chiefs on February 9th in New Orleans for Super Bowl LIX.
Bookmaking Bonanza
The rematch from two years ago is set, and the Philadelphia Eagles will hope to atone for their 38-35 loss to the Chiefs. However, the number of US states now offering either mobile, retail, or a combination of both has grown since then, and so too has the projected handle on this year’s Super Bowl compared to all others before it.
The American Gaming Association (AGA) estimates that the amount wagered on this single game on the second Sunday in February will reach $1.39 billion at US-licensed sportsbooks.
This is a rather conservative projection compared to other gaming industry groups like Eilers & Krejcik Gaming that have forecasted a $1.5 billion handle on Super Bowl LIX derived exclusively from U.S. licensed sportsbooks “based on historical trends and recent state handle data.”
“The estimate is around 20% higher than our projection last year and is a meaningful jump—indeed, in 2024 we had the Super Bowl accounting for 10.4% of February handle, compared to 11.2% this year,” the EKG analysts wrote last week. “The increase in our number is partially because we under-projected Super Bowl handle last year—handle that may have been boosted somewhat by the outlier-y Taylor Swift effect and record TV viewing figures.”
However, investment bankers at Citizens JMP predict that 13% of February’s projected handle will come via Super Bowl 59 and clear $1.75 billion through domestic US sportsbooks. “North Carolina is the only active online sports betting state that was not live for the Super Bowl last year; therefore, we expect promotional investment to be down [year-over-year] while the industry faces an easy comp with an unfavorable outcome in 2024,” JMP analyst Jordan Bender wrote last week.
Customer Friendly Season
Unlike many years, this NFL season has been a boon to bettors. FanDuel’s parent company, Flutter Entertainment, recently reported that the 2024-25 NFL season “has been the most customer friendly since the launch of online sports betting with the highest rate of favorites winning in nearly 20 years.”
Flutter also revealed that its revenues were down approximately $370 million due to customer favorable outcomes like the Week 17 matchup between America’s sweetheart, the Detroit Lions, and last year’s Super Bowl runner-up, the San Francisco 49ers. The Lions covered as three-point road favorites in Detroit’s 40-34 victory while the posted total of 50.5 was obliterated by more than 23 points.
Financial analysts at investment bank Jefferies wrote in a note to clients, “Specifically, the high-scoring (40-34) match between the (Detroit) Lions and (San Francisco) 49ers on Dec. 30, which featured nine unique touchdown scorers, cost Flutter $74m.” Nevertheless, the unexpected windfall bettors experienced in the fourth quarter of 2024 is considered a temporary blip on sportsbooks’ spreadsheets. The analysts are fully expecting those gains to be given back at some point soon.
“We view 4Q24 as a positive for the long-term health of the U.S. industry—customers, after all, need to win every so often to keep them engaged and enjoying the OSB product,” Eilers & Krejcik said last month. “Further, we expect significant recycling in 1Q25 as customers deploy healthy balances.”
