NFL Odds, Lines and Spreads - Week 16

Understanding NFL Betting Odds

When you encounter NFL betting lines, what you see is the sportsbook’s prediction of the game’s outcome. These football lines are influenced by numerous factors such as team performance, player injuries, weather conditions and even betting trends.

The odds for the betting favorites are accompanied by a minus or negative sign (–), indicating the amount you need to bet to win $100. Conversely, underdog teams are marked with a plus or positive sign (+), showing how much you’d win from a $100 bet.

The dynamic nature of football odds means they can change drastically leading up to the betting event. This volatility is due to changes in key variables or betting patterns. Therefore, staying updated with the latest odds and understanding their implications is crucial for bettors looking to gain an edge when betting on preseason games all the way up to the Super Bowl, the biggest annual event in the NFL.

Popular Types of NFL Bets at Online Sportsbooks

Engaging in NFL betting allows for a wide variety of wagering options, each offering different ways to engage with the games and potentially earn payouts. Understanding these popular types of NFL bets is crucial for both seasoned bettors and newcomers alike. We will cover a wide array of betting markets in greater detail below:

Moneyline Betting Markets

The NFL moneyline bet is a straightforward and popular form of betting that focuses purely on the outcome of an individual game, from regular season games to the biggest game of the year, the Super Bowl. This simplicity makes moneyline betting especially appealing for those new to sports betting or those who prefer a more direct wagering approach.

When examining moneyline odds, you’ll notice two key figures next to each team’s name: a plus (+) sign next to the underdog and a minus (–) sign next to the betting favorite. The numbers indicate how much you would need to bet to win $100 if betting on the favorite or how much you would win if you bet $100 on the underdog.

It is important to understand that moneyline odds reflect the perceived strength and likelihood of each team winning the game. Favorites offer lower payouts since their likelihood of winning is higher, while underdogs can provide a higher return due to the increased risk.

Example: If the Kansas City Chiefs are listed at -160 against the Colts at +140, then a $160 bet on the Kansas City Chiefs would net you $100 if they win, while a $100 bet on the Colts would return $140 if they emerge victorious.

Point Spread Betting Markets

Football spread betting is a pivotal betting format that balances the playing field between two unevenly matched teams, making every game intriguing for bettors. This type of bet is not merely about picking the winner of a game; it’s about choosing the team that will ‘cover the spread.’

When you see a point spread bet, it will have two components: a betting favorite and an underdog team. The favorite is denoted by a minus (–) sign, indicating how many points they are expected to win the game by. The underdog is marked with a plus (+) sign, showing how many points they can lose by and still ‘cover’ or win the bet.

Point spread betting can offer more attractive betting odds than moneyline betting, particularly in matchups where there’s a clear favorite and underdog. The goal of the sports betting operator is to encourage equal betting splits on both sides to minimize risk, often adjusting the spread based on how bets are placed.

Example: If the Kansas City Chiefs are listed as -7.5 against Miami, the Chiefs are favored to win by more than 7.5 points. For a bet on the Chiefs to pay out, they must win by 8 points or more. Conversely, a bet on the Dolphins would win if they either lose by 7 points or fewer or if they are the outright winners of the football game.

Totals Betting Markets (Over/Under Wagers)

Totals betting is a form of betting where you predict the combined final game score of both teams in a game to be either over or under a number set by the online sports betting site. This bet type appeals to those who wish to engage with the game’s scoring aspect rather than focusing solely on the winning team.

When engaging with over/under odds, you are presented with a total score line set by sportsbook oddsmakers. This line is an estimation of the total points scored by both teams. Your task is to decide if the actual score will exceed (Over) or fall short (Under) of this line.

This decision should be informed by factors like offensive and defensive rankings, weather conditions, player injury news and previous encounters between the teams.

Bettors need to recognize that the set total is a reflection of various influencing elements, including team performance trends and conditions likely to affect scoring. Analyzing these can provide valuable insights into whether a game is likely to be a high or low-scoring game.

Example: If a total is set at 47.5 for a game between Philadelphia and Washington, betting the Over means you believe the combined final score will be 48 points or more. Betting the Under means you expect it to be 47 points or less. If the final combined score is exactly 47.5, it results in a push (or a betting tie) and bets are typically refunded.

Prop Betting Markets

Betting on NFL prop bets, short for proposition bets, allows bettors to explore various aspects of football games beyond the basic outcomes. These bets dive into the details of the game, ranging from individual player performances, such as touchdowns scored, field goals made, yards gained or interceptions made, to team-specific statistics like total points or unique in-game events.

NFL props enhance the betting landscape by offering a wide array of betting options that focus on the intricate details of the game. Prop bets are divided into game props, team props and player props, each presenting distinct opportunities to leverage different facets of gameplay:

NFL Game Props

Game props delve into the general characteristics of the game itself, not just the final outcome. Bettors can wager on various elements like the outcome of a coin toss, the total points scored, which half will be the highest scoring or whether the game will extend into overtime.

Example: For a showdown between the Patriots and the Bills, a game prop might be placed on the “Total Points Over/Under” at 45.5. Bettors then decide if they believe the combined score of both teams will be higher or lower than this figure.

NFL Team Props

Team props are focused on the achievements of a particular team within a game, which may not directly determine the game’s winner or loser. These can include bets on which team will score first, the total number of touchdowns a team will score or the number of turnovers a team will commit.

Example: In a matchup, a team prop bet could revolve around the “Total Touchdowns Scored” with an over/under line set at 2.5. Bettors then predict whether their chosen team will exceed or fall below this touchdown count.

NFL Player Props

Player prop bets concentrate on the statistical performances of individual players, allowing for detailed analysis of player contributions. These bets may cover metrics like a quarterback’s passing yards, a running back’s total yards from scrimmage or a wide receiver’s receptions and receiving yards.

Example: In a game that includes the Kansas City Chiefs, a player prop bet might feature Patrick Mahomes and his “Total Passing Yards” for the game, with the line established at 305.5. Bettors then determine if they think Mahomes will surpass or not reach this yardage, offering an investment in his performance.

Futures Betting Markets

Betting on NFL futures involves placing wagers on major events and outcomes that will unfold over the course of the regular season or at its conclusion, rather than focusing on the results of a single game. This form of betting taps into a football bettor’s ability to predict long-term results of future events based on their understanding of the league’s dynamics, team compositions and player capabilities.

NFL futures betting is appealing because it offers the potential for significant returns. As the season progresses, the odds for futures bets can shift dramatically in response to team performances, key player injuries, trades and other relevant news, providing dynamic betting opportunities that more experienced bettors can take advantage of.

There is a huge variety of betting options available, but the primary areas of interest in the NFL futures betting markets include:

• Super Bowl Winner: The most common futures bet in the NFL markets is predicting which team will lift the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season. For this long-term wager, the online betting odds are continually adjusted to reflect the changing landscape of the NFL. For example, if Tampa Bay is listed at +500 to win the Super Bowl, a $100 bet would net $500 in profit if they win this annual championship game.
• Conference Championship Winners: Futures bets can also be placed on the championship games for the American Football Conference (AFC) and the National Football Conference (NFC). This allows bettors to focus on a team’s performance within its conference, offering a different avenue for investment than predicting the Super Bowl winner. For instance, backing the Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC with odds of +300 means an initial stake of $100 would return $300 if they are named the conference winner.
• Division Winners: Futures bets can also be made on which teams will win each of the NFL’s eight divisions. This bet allows fans to focus on the competitive dynamics within specific divisions, with the online sportsbook odds reflecting each team’s prospects of finishing atop their division. For instance, if the Patriots’ NFL betting odds are listed at +300 to win the AFC East, a $100 bet would yield $300 in profit if the Patriots secure the division title.
• Season Win Totals: NFL betting sites set over/under betting lines on the total number of wins each NFL team will secure during the regular season. Bettors then decide if they believe a team will exceed (over) or fall short (under) of this prediction. For example, if the season win total for San Francisco is set at 10.5, you can bet on whether they will win more or fewer football games than that figure.
• Individual Awards: Futures betting also extends to individual player awards and achievements, such as the Most Valuable Player (MVP), Offensive Rookie of the Year or Defensive Player of the Year awards. If Aaron Rodgers is listed at +750 to win the MVP award, a successful $100 bet on him would yield $750 in profit.

NFL futures betting offers a compelling way to engage with football betting beyond the immediate results of games. It provides a strategic platform for those looking to leverage their insights into the NFL’s broader trends and potential season-long narratives, offering excitement and the opportunity for profit based on the season’s overarching developments.

Parlay Betting Markets

Parlay betting stands out as a compelling and potentially lucrative option for sports bettors looking to amplify their winnings by combining multiple bets into a single wager. This strategy involves linking two or more betting selections, such as game outcomes, point spreads or totals, into one bet.

The allure of parlay betting lies in the increased bet payout potential; however, it comes with the caveat that all individual bets within the parlay (or ‘legs’) must win for the bettor to secure a payout. This all-or-nothing aspect adds an exciting layer of strategy and risk to NFL betting.

The process of constructing a parlay bet allows bettors to blend various types of wagers across different games or events. For example, a bettor might combine an NFL moneyline bet, an NBA point spread and an MLB totals bet into a single parlay.

There are also same-game parlays where you combine different bets on a specific game, such as multiple prop bets. For both parlays and same-game parlays, the total odds of the parlay bet are calculated by multiplying the odds of all individual bets, offering a higher potential return than placing these bets individually.

However, the complexity and difficulty of hitting a perfect parlay should not be underestimated. Since every component of the bet must be correct to win, the risk is significantly higher compared to single bets. This risk is the price of the enticingly high returns that can be achieved if the parlay is successful.

Live Betting Markets

Live betting, also known as in-play betting, revolutionizes the way fans interact with NFL games, offering a compelling, real-time betting experience. This dynamic form of betting allows you to place wagers on unfolding events and outcomes within a game, with football odds that update as the action progresses on the field.

NFL live bets cover a wide array of possibilities, providing numerous opportunities to engage with the game as it happens. You can expect to find the following in-game lines and more at most major sportsbooks:

• Next Team to Score: Bet on which NFL team will be the next to put points on the board. This type of wager keeps you engaged with every drive and defensive stand.
• Quarter & Half Scores: Focus your betting strategy on the outcomes or total points scored in specific quarters or halves. This option lets you capitalize on trends and momentum shifts within portions of the game.
• Player Performance: Place bets on whether a player will exceed specific statistical thresholds during the game, such as passing yards, rushing yards, receptions or touchdowns. These bets spotlight individual players and their contributions to the game.
• Total Points: Predict the combined total points scored by both teams, either by the end of the game or within designated periods. This bet is ideal for those with insights into the offensive and defensive capabilities of the competing teams.
• Live Prop Bets: This NFL betting option lets you engage with a wide range of in-game scenarios, such as which player will score the next touchdown, the number of sacks in the game or whether there will be a safety. Live props add depth and excitement to your betting experience.

Participating in NFL live betting requires a deep understanding of football strategies and the ability to swiftly make decisions as the betting odds shift. The instantaneous nature of live betting presents unique opportunities and challenges, compelling football fans to adjust their strategies based on the current state of play, team dynamics and live game developments.

Period Betting Markets

Period betting divides the game into smaller segments, such as quarters (1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarter) and halves, enabling bettors to concentrate on specific intervals of the match.

This form of betting allows for wagers on various outcomes within these distinct periods, including which team will win a particular quarter, the total points scored during a quarter or half (Over/Under) or the point spread for these individual segments.

This betting strategy opens up unique opportunities for those who possess detailed knowledge of a team’s performance patterns at different stages of a game. Understanding a team’s tendency to start strong or finish with a flourish or how it adapts its strategy during different phases, can be critical for making informed period betting decisions.

Example: Imagine a matchup where you’re betting on the first quarter outcome. You might see options like:

• Team A to win the 1st quarter: +130
• Team B to win the 1st quarter: +160
• 1st quarter to end in a tie: +220
• Over 21.5 points in the 1st half: -110
• Under 21.5 points in the 1st half: +110

Period betting presents a promising avenue for profitability but also introduces a degree of volatility, attributed to the limited timeframe of each bet.

Achieving success in period betting requires thorough research and analysis, focusing on team and player performance metrics, alongside disciplined management of one’s betting funds.

Betting on Alternate NFL Lines

Alternate lines betting lets you adjust the point spread or totals for a game to fit your strategy. For example, if a sportsbook sets the line at -7.5, you could choose -10.5 for a higher payout since it’s riskier, or a safer option like -4.5, where your payout is smaller but more likely to hit.

You’re essentially shifting the odds in your favor or increasing your potential reward depending on how confident you are in the outcome. This flexibility can significantly enhance your betting strategy, allowing for both aggressive and cautious approaches depending on the situation.

How do you read football odds?

Understanding NFL odds formats is key for improving your betting game. It helps you read the odds, gauge team probabilities, and find the best value in your bets throughout the season.

The most common types of odds you’ll encounter are American odds, but it’s also useful to be familiar with decimal and fractional formats:

• American Format: American odds are prevalent in the United States and are displayed with a plus (+) or minus (–) sign. The minus sign indicates the favorite team (the team that is perceived to be the stronger team), showing how much money you need to bet to win $100.
• Decimal Format: Decimal odds are more common in Europe and Canada but are straightforward to understand. The decimal represents the total payout, not just the profit, for every dollar wagered.
• Fractional Format: Fractional odds are often found in the U.K. and express the profit relative to the stake. Presented as fractions, such as 3/1 or 5/2, the first number is the profit earned from a bet equal to the second number. So, a $100 bet at 3/1 odds would net $300 in profit, totaling $400 with the return of the original stake.

Knowing how to read an online sportsbook’s odds table is critical for online sports betting.

Understanding Betting Line Movement

Understanding betting line movement is essential for anyone looking to become a successful NFL bettor. Line movement refers to the changes in betting odds or point spreads set by legal betting sites. These shifts occur for several reasons and savvy bettors can use this information to make more informed decisions.

Why NFL Betting Lines Move

Lines move primarily due to betting action and significant changes in game-related factors. When a large amount of money is placed on one side of a bet, sportsbooks adjust the odds or spread to balance the action and minimize their risk. This is known as “sharp money” and often indicates where professional bettors are placing their bets.

Other factors influencing line movement include:

• Player Injuries: A key player injury can drastically affect a team’s overall performance, prompting online sportsbooks to adjust the betting odds accordingly.
• Weather Conditions: Adverse weather can impact game dynamics, especially in outdoor stadiums, leading to changes in the betting lines.
• Public Perception: Sometimes, the betting public’s reaction to news or team performance can shift lines, particularly if there is a strong consensus on one side.

These factors lead to line movements as sportsbooks strive to maintain a balanced book, minimizing their exposure to potential losses.

Using Line Movement for Online Sports Betting

When betting on sports, including the NFL, understanding and tracking line movement can give bettors an edge. Here are some strategies:

• Identify Sharp Money: If a line moves significantly without any apparent reason, it could indicate sharp money. Following these moves can be beneficial.
• Timing Bets: Placing bets early can be advantageous before lines move. However, waiting until closer to game time might provide better value if you anticipate line shifts.
• Shop for the Best Lines: Different sportsbooks may react differently to betting action, so shopping around for the best betting odds or spreads can maximize your potential payout. You can also utilize betting tools, like our NFL odds table, to easily compare the odds markets across multiple sportsbooks.

Example: If a star quarterback is ruled out of a game due to a player injury, the line may move significantly to reflect the decreased likelihood of that team winning. Similarly, if bad weather is forecasted, the total points line might be adjusted downward due to anticipated lower scoring.

By tracking these movements, you can gauge where the smart money is going and adjust your betting strategy accordingly.

Finding the Best NFL Odds Today

To maximize potential profits, it’s crucial to find the best NFL odds by line shopping at multiple online sportsbooks. Here’s how to do it:

• Compare Odds Across Legal Sportsbooks: Different online sportsbooks — such as FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook or DraftKings Sportsbook — may offer varying odds for the same game. Check multiple sites and sportsbook menus to identify the best available NFL betting odds.
• Monitor Line Movements: Odds can change based on betting action and other factors. Use an odds tool, like our NFL betting table at the top of the page, to keep an eye on line movements and identify favorable betting choices.
• Account for Juice/Vig: The juice or vig is the commission sportsbooks take. Lower vig means better value. Compare the vig across sportsbooks to ensure you’re getting the best deal.
• Utilize Betting Promotions & Bonus Codes: Some sportsbooks offer special betting promos, boosted odds or other bonuses. Utilizing sportsbook promo codes and bonus offers improves your betting value.
• Sign Up for Multiple Accounts: Having accounts with several sportsbooks or mobile sports betting apps gives you flexibility and access to the best betting odds available for all upcoming games and NFL betting events.

By following these steps, you can enhance your overall betting strategy and maximize your potential returns at your favorite sportsbooks.

Conclusion

Knowing how to read NFL odds, analyze betting lines and assess team and player statistics can help you to become a smarter sports bettor and achieve more success when betting on these popular betting options throughout the 2024-25 NFL regular season.

NFL Odds: Frequently Asked Questions

How are NFL odds set?

NFL odds are set by oddsmakers who analyze multiple factors including team performance, historical matchups, player injuries, weather conditions and betting patterns. They create an initial line which is then adjusted based on how bettors wager, aiming to balance the betting action on both sides of the wager.

How accurate are NFL odds?

NFL odds are generally accurate as they reflect extensive analysis by bookmakers, considering team performance, injuries and public betting patterns. However, they can still be influenced by unforeseen factors, making them estimates rather than guarantees.

What is the easiest NFL bet to play?

The “easiest” NFL bet is subjective, but many consider the moneyline bet on a strong favorite to be straightforward as it simply involves picking the team you believe will win outright. However, the payouts for betting on favorites are typically lower compared to underdogs or other types of bets.

Do Super Bowl favorites usually win?

Based on historical data, NFL betting favorites for the Super Bowl win approximately 55% of the time. However, the outcome can often be unpredictable since the participating teams are usually closely matched in skill.